Market expected to trade with positive bias

According to Angel Broking report, the coming trading session is expected to trade with positive bias and on the upside Nifty may test 4200-4220 levels, if it convincingly trades above 4175 levels.

Angel Broking report on market outlook

Nifty opened on an optimistic note and traded with positive bias for most part of the trading session. The Sectoral Indices also witnessed buying interest and a short term upside in metal and Midcap sector cannot be ruled out. Nifty has taken strong support near 4100 levels and it is expected to trade positive with stock specific movement.

The coming trading session is expected to trade with positive bias and on the upside Nifty may test 4200-4220 levels, if it convincingly trades above 4175 levels. The immediate support for Nifty is at 4150-4140 levels and a further downside upto 4120 can be expected if it trades below such levels, though this seems unlikely for the coming trading session. The short term investors are advised to book partial profits at higher levels.

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Global markets to cue stocks next week!

The Indian stock market was largely influenced by global cues this week--interest rate concerns, liquidity constraints, and rising inflation. Adding to this, were the slew of domestic public offerings.

Bombay Stock Exchanges' Sensex gained 0.7% over the week to close at 14163 on Friday. National Stock Exchange's Nifty rose 0.6% week on week.

Capital goods shares saw good amount of buying interest and the BSE Capital Goods Index ended 2.9% higher over the week. BSE Metals Index also put up a good show and gained 2.5%. But autos witnessed selling pressure and the BSE Auto Index lost 0.6% week on week.

Asian equities continued their upward momentum on Monday and Tuesday on the back of Wall Street gains. But they came under a cloud as bond yields soared to a five-year high in the US on rate worries. But as the concerns eased, Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI scaled new highs. Friday, Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Back home, the week kicked off with investor expectation high from the 17.5-crore share DLF issue. Vishal Retail's 47 lakh share, which also opened Monday, seemed ill-timed. But it was subscribed 69 times as it closed Wednesday.

In comparison, the DLF float was subscribed 3.5 times, but retail portion just 1.05 times. Analysts said the high price band of Rs 500-550 made retail investors shy away.

The Roman Tarmat issue, which opened on Tuesday closes on June 19, has not been as lucky as Vishal Retail and has evoked a lukewarm response.

Next week, investors will again ready themselves for the Rs 20,000 crore follow-on issue from ICICI Bank which opens Tuesday. The domestic issue is for Rs 8,750 crore, with a greenshoe option of Rs 1,312.5 crore. The bank also plans an American depositary share issue of Rs 10,100 crore. Both the ADS and domestic issues will run simultaneously.

Market watchers feel ICICI will receive more retail participation. The price band for the issue will be fixed Monday. It closes June 22.

Such a huge strain on liquidity will play on the secondary market, even as global happenings during the weekend give fresh cues.

"Till the Nifty spot decisively crosses 4200 and provided the cost of carry in derivatives stabilises at 10%, the gyrations in the market will continue," said Amit Hiremath, analyst at IDBI Capital Market Services.

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Sugar Sector led by Bajaj Hindustan will keep disappointing...

The news is filled with stories about inflation and food costs going up, but there is one market where prices have been cut in half since last year - Sugar! Sugar prices continue to remain weak, as consumption continues to lag world production. The market is currently awash in both raw and white Sugar, with India's crop expected to be revised upward and Brazil struggling to find buyers for its surplus. News that Brazil will increase the percentage of Ethanol in gasoline from 23% to 25% was mildly supportive, but traders remain focused on burdensome supplies, and physical buyers are holding off for even lower prices. Just yesterday, Tunisia cancelled a tender offer to buy Sugar, balking at current prices. With speculators busily rolling out of the July contract and into October ahead of First Notice Day, spread trading is in the spotlight. However, once the roll is out of the way, traders will resume looking at the fundamentals, which favor lower prices ahead.

The Sugar Export Corporation ISEC, which recently sold raws from India's next crop to the Dubai al-Khaleej refinery, will not sell raw sugar at current prices, its chief executive S.L. Jain said on Thursday.
"At today's levels prices are too low," Jain, head of the Indian Sugar Exim Corporation Ltd (ISEC), told Reuters during a trip to London to attend an industry function.
"We will not dump sugar," he added.
"Less than 10 cents per lb does not suit us."
New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) March 2008 raw sugar futures stood at 9.26 cents per lb, down by 0.11 cent, in late afternoon trading.
Jain said he expected Indian raw sugar export sales from the next crop not to exceed 500,000 tonnes, but the total export tonnage would depend on prices.
Referring to the recent slide in sugar futures following news of the Indian raw sugar sale to Dubai, Jain said of the sugar market: "The psychology is really bad."
A huge centre-south Brazilian harvest and the prospect of substantial Indian raw sugar exports from the next crop are weighing heavily on raw sugar prices, which have fallen by almost 30% this year.
Sugar merchant ED&F Man said on 14 June said it was bearish on sugar prices due to the weight of Brazilian and Indian supplies.
Dubai's al-Khaleej refinery last week confirmed it had bought more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian raw sugar for shipment later this year and into next year, its first purchase of Indian raw sugar, muscling out competition from Brazil.
Jain said the raw sugar sold to Dubai, for shipment between December 2007 and March 2008, totalled 235,000 tonnes.
He said the sale was agreed at $246.50 per tonne FOB India, and estimated India's net freight advantage over Brazil to the Dubai refinery at $35 per tonne.
He added that Indian production costs were higher than Brazil's, but said India's freight advantage boosted Indian sales prospects in nearby markets from south Asia to the Middle East.
Jain estimated Indian 2006/07 sugar output at 27.5 million tonnes, and forecast 2007/08 production at 28-29 million.

In all, there is no good news for Sugar in near future except some swelling here and there. Infact, even in longer term, probably 1-2 year, there is nothing great coming up fundamentally. Only technical curve rolling could be expected at times. If you already have bajaj hindustan, get rid of it with every rise, and certainly at a level of INR 220, if it reaches there. As we strongly believe that entire sugar sector led by bajaj hindustan will keep disappointing.

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Buy Infy if it comes below 1950 !

When we talk about technology sector, obviously there are two-three cues which has to be looked at. One is the rupee which on an average has appreciated quite a bit. In fact if you look at on an average it is less than Rs 41. Second if you look at the hedging, which has been increased by most of the technology heavyweights that clearly shows an indication that you are looking even more rupee appreciation from the current level. So surprise, which was expected, is anyways people have factored that into price as well. So we are not seeing much of the surprise from the current level in fact we are quite positive on the overall technology segment and from the current level it gives even better opportunities. One can certainly buy Infosys if it comes down to a level of Rs 1925-1950.

It's true that tech stocks have taken a bit of knock today, again the expectation is that the results for June quarter will not be too good for tech. But this is already known, this is already there in the prices, so in case the techs come down more from here it's a buying opportunity.In fact we are taking a contrarian call in tech and we were buying Infosys earlier at Rs 1925-1950 levels, which we exited partially yesterday and today. So again if the stock like Infosys comes down to those Rs 1900-1925 levels, we will again be buyers in that.

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