Friday 14 September 2007

What's In My Portfolio


  • KLG Systel
  • Atlanta Limited
  • Acrow India
  • Tamilnadu Newspaper
  • UTV Software
  • Reliance Capital
  • Zee News
  • Pantaloon Retail
  • Mphasis
  • Tech Mahindra
  • Network 18 Fincap Ltd.
  • Bihar Tubes
  • Banswara Syntex
  • L & T

Learn the basics: http://knowmarket.blogspot.com/

Monthly Call


Ultratech Cement

CMP: 971
Target 1: 1023
Target 2: 1035


Current Quote of Ultratech Cement

Ultra Tech Cement is a subsidiary of Grasim Industries, the flagship of the Aditya Birla Group. Its basket of products includes ordinary Portland cement, Portland blast furnace slag cement, Portland Pozzolana cement and Grey Portland cement. The company reported a 16% growth in revenue to Rs 1365.27 crore for the June 2007 quarter. While domestic sales volumes registered a 5% growth to 3.67 million tonnes, exports were curtailed to cater to the growing domestic demand. OPM has increased marginally by 10 basis points to 31.8%. Due to surge in other income and decline in interest expenses, net profits were up 23% to Rs 259.38 crore. The capacity expansion at the plant in Andhra Pradesh together with setting up a split grinding unit and captive power plant is progressing on schedule. Considering the growing demand in the southern markets and the availability of slag, the company has decided to augment its capacity to 4.9 million tonnes per annum instead of 4 million tonnes per annum as had been decided earlier. The split grinding unit is being set up at Ginigera in Karnataka. The company has earmarked an Rs 3,300 capex for next three years for its expansion projects and de-bottlenecking.

Six Month Call

Atlanta Limited

CMP: 271
Target 1: 380
Target 2: 440


Current Quote of Atlanta Limited





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Target-A-Year


Parsvnath Developers

CMP: 317
Target 1: 510
Target 2: 625


Current Quote of Parsvnath Developers

For the real estate sector per se only those investors who have higher risk appetite and a long-term horizon should enter this sector because there are lot of good prospects and side by side there are lot of problems also with the sector with the interest rates going up, the land bank valuation going here and there. So unless and until you have a higher risk appetite and a long-term horizon you should not enter this sector."

Parsvnath Developers is in strong footing with presence in both residential and commercial sector. They have the contracts with DMRC (Delhi Metro Development) of the stations, malls, they are coming up with multiplexes, they are into SEZ at Gurgoan, now they have announced a roll out license for mobile telephony. All these speak well for Parsvnath and if the investor has a long-term view, one can certainly enter into this stock.



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Next IPO


None at the moment!
Wait for next round of upcoming IPOs.

Grey Market Premium


Power Grid Corporation IPO Grey Market Price
IPO Offer Price : 44 to 52
Grey Market Premium : 14 to 15

Dhanush Technologies IPO Grey Market price
IPO Offer Price : 280 to 295
Grey Market Premium : 90 to 95

Koutons Retail IPO Grey Market price
IPO Offer Price : 370 to 415
Grey Market Premium : 95 to 98

Allied Computer IPO Grey Market price
IPO Offer Price : 12

Kaveri Seeds IPO Grey Market price
IPO Offer Price : 150 to 170
Grey Market Premium : 12 to 14

Indowind Energy IPO Grey Market price
IPO Offer Price : 55 to 65
Grey Market Premium : Discount

Magnum Venture IPO Grey Market price
IPO Offer Price : 30
Grey Market Premium : 2 to 3

Recent Happenings

  • Sensex remains 152 points short for a new high.

  • FII selling amount to record $2 billion in Aug'07 on net basis.

  • US data on Housing and employment show unexpected decline.

  • BSE Small-Cap and PSU Index hit all-time high during the week.

  • Gold hits a 16-month high.

  • Within five days of opening, 5 million users apply for "Do not call" registry.

Learn the basics: http://knowmarket.blogspot.com/

New entrants in derivative segment

1. PFC : Supported at 61.8% correction level,
2. Yes Bank : Supported at 61.8% correction level,
3. Tech Mahindra : Strong resistance line
4. 3i Infotech : Short corrective phase may be over
5. Lakshmi Machine Works : Holds 61.8% correction level, gains on high volumes


Sunday 9 September 2007

What's In My Portfolio

  • Acrow India
  • Tamilnadu Newspaper
  • UTV Software
  • Reliance Capital
  • Zee News
  • Kriti Industries
  • Deep Industries
  • Pantaloon Retail
  • Mphasis
  • Tech Mahindra
  • Network 18 Fincap Ltd.
  • Bihar Tubes
  • Banswara Syntex
  • L & T

Learn the basics: http://knowmarket.blogspot.com/

    Monthly Call

    Zee Entertainment Enterprise

    CMP: 306
    Target 1: 331
    Target 2: 342


    Current Quote of Zee Entertainment enterprise
    Zee TV, with 234 gross rating points (GRPs) in Q1FY08, is now closer to the genre leader Star Plus. Zee TV's market share was 25% during the quarter, up from 23% in Q1FY07; Star Plus 38%; Sony 13%; Sahara One 9% and Star One 8%. Zee TV had a market share of 29% and Star Plus 32% in the week ending July 14, 2007 .

    Zee Entertainment Enterprises reported an impressive performance as consolidated operating revenue grew by 35% to Rs 391.60 crore backed by an expansion in advertising revenue by 47% y-o-y to Rs 204.37 crore for the quarter ending June 30, 2007, while subscriptions grew by 27% to Rs 168.09 crore, and other sales and services were up by 9% to Rs 19.11 crore. Operating profit margin improved 770 basis points (bps) to 30.6% and the resultant net profit grew 47% to Rs 77.10 crore.

    Zee Cinema also undertook many new programming and marketing initiatives to enhance viewer experience. The June 2007 quarter also showcased a big event – Zee Cine Awards. Zee Cinema achieved a channel share of 31%. Zee Cafe continued its lead over Star World in all-day ratings as well as prime-time ratings across five metros. Zee Cafe commissioned two new shows – Showbiz India Extreme, a variety programme that looks into the lives and times of the Indian diaspora in North America , and Top 10 countdown, listing the best and worst from various categories in fashion, lifestyle, Bollywood, music and luxury. Zee Studio introduced a unique initiative on world cinema, which included all-time great titles including Finally Sunday by Truffaut, Double Life of Veronique by Kieslowski and Twin Peaks by David Lynch. The channel premiered over 40 movies in the quarter. Revenue from the sports business was Rs 34.5 crore. It suffered a loss at EBITDA of Rs 3 crore in the June 2007 quarter.

    Going forward, the company has planned to launch a general entertainment youth-based channel, ZeeNext, by January 2008 and is entering into a joint venture with a broadcasting company in the Middle East to launch a movie channel to broadcast Hindi films dubbed in Arabic. Also, Zee Sports would be entering the US market partnering with Dish Network. With growing market share and increasing realizations, expectations are that the company will give good returns going forward.

    Six Month Call

    Infosys

    CMP: 1870
    Target 1: 2354
    Target 2: 2442


    Current Quote of Infosys


    Infosys Technologies has outlined its strategy to survive in an appreciating currency environment coupled with the end of the tax holiday in FY10. The company has over the past three years developed a number of solution-based offerings, which currently account for about 12% of revenues. These offerings enjoy margins higher than the company average. The company's nascent service offerings like infrastructure management, testing and consulting are growing at a rapid pace and are likely to be significant contributors going forward with margins higher than the company's average. Infosys also plans to make incremental capacity additions in SEZs thereby partly mitigating the impact of the higher taxes post the tax holiday period. The recent acquisition of Philips BPO adds delivery centers in Poland , Thailand and Chennai along with a $250 mn contract spread over five years. The company also hinted to the possibility of Philips becoming one of its top 10 customers by offering other services. I believe that the company is well poised to weather the current storm based on the above measures and recommend a buy on the stock.

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    Target-A-Year

    KLG Systel

    CMP: 470
    Target 1: 790
    Target 2: 830


    Current Quote of KLG Systel


    KLG Systel has announced that on Aug 27, 2007 the Company has acquired 51% stake in Atlantis Lab Pvt Ltd, a dedicated engineering solutions Company. Atlantis will become a subsidiary of the Company post acquisition. The company valued Atlantis for Rs.24 crores and 51% stake would cost KLG about Rs. 12.4 crores. Atlantis is a dedicated engineering services company having presence at Chennai, Bangalore and Pune. Atlantis was incorporated in 2001 and within short time-span of operations it has good marquee clientele. The company provides mechanical design solutions to worldwide manufacturers such as GE, Whirlpool, Atlas Copco, TATA Motors, John Deere, Schneider Electric and Cummins, etc. Atlantis Lab's current service offerings include product design, design automation, design simulation tool, design data migration, and PDM/PLM solutions for the growing automobile, aerospace, Industrial machinery and Heavy Engineering markets.

    Rationale for the acquisition:

    Worldwide the Engineering Services market is making great strides. The recent NASSCOM BOOZ Allen Hamilton study of international trends in Engineering Services Outsourcing markets, predicts that by 2020, 25 to 30 percent of the projected $225 billion global offshore engineering services market could belong to India. This acquisition will enhance the company's service offerings, geographical presence which would increase its' addressable pie in the growing offshore engineering service market. The company derives its revenues from domestic markets with this acquisition the company will have access to North America and European market. The company is planning to expand its infrastructure capacity for 1000 at its head quarters in Gurgaon.

    Future Plan:

    The relationship will provide KLG Systel an opportunity to go to the ESO (Engineering Service Outsourcing) markets faster and widen its reach to the 3 design hubs at Chennai, Pune and Bangalore. Atlantis Lab already has a strong base in these cities. KLG plans to increase capacity at the newly acquired subsidiary to 1000 design & analysis seats by the end of year 2008 from existing 150 seats. The new subsidiary plans to focus on Automotive, Aerospace, Industrial Machinery. Heavy Engineering, Ship Building, Power and Process verticals where there is a strong demand for Product Design and Product Life Cycle solutions and services. The new subsidiary plans to offer a state of the art design solution and services like FEA (finite element analysis) / FEM in static, vibration, crash, impact, CFD (computational fluid dynamics), NVH (noise vibration harshness), BIW weld fixtures, Mold Flow analysis, Reverse Engineering, Electronics & Navigation systems, Technical Documentation, NC path generation, Plant Design, Plant stress analysis etc. This design centre will have an ultra modern RPD (rapid prototyping) and testing facilities for the industry, providing Company's clients to carry out live prototyping and testing of the designs being delivered. Currently there are very few design centers in the world, which offer a complete solution from design to prototyping and testing. The company is also planning to set up ODC (Offshore Design Centers) for its global and Indian clients, which will help the company to deliver value in terms of improvement in productivity with cost efficiency to its clients.

    Business Overview:

    KLG has been engaged in life cycle solutions and power system solutions. It offers knowledge solutions to oil & gas, process, power, metal, manufacturing and infrastructure sectors by providing a unique mix of domain expertise, software solutions, consultancy and training. Its technology partners are AutoDesk, COADE, IBM, Invensys, Microsoft, Oracle, Primavera, SAP and Unigraphics. Building on the deep power domain expertise and its relentless R&D, KLG has developed a solution that empowers consumers to manage their electricity consumption. This unique web based solution has been named as http://www.connectgaia.com/ which makes it possible for users to View, Visualize, Measure, Optimise and Manage the Energy Consumption in their Domestic, Commercial, Industrial, Government and Semi-Government establishments.

    Valuation:

    The outlook is distinctly positive especially with India's booming economy and development of new markets for Company's products. The Central Govt. is targeting to add a generation capacity of up to 70,000 MW in the 11th Plan, while it has also asked the states to bring down transmission and distribution losses to 15 per cent by 2010 from about 40 per cent now. KLG proposes to tie up with state electricity Companies to provide software solutions developed by it. The company's patented software solutions - Vidushi & SG61 will certainly help the electricity generating and distribution utilities to control transmission and distribution losses. Company's focus on brand building will enhance its presence in critical markets and add value to the Company's fundamentals. There is a vast scope of automation for mass production and Power System Solutions to control distribution and transmission losses in our country. I believe that there is a vast scope for improvement in its earnings and price appreciation as a result of increase in profitability. It is expected that revenue and profit will grow at 61.5% and 81% CAGR respectively over FY2007-10 period. The stock is currently traded at ~22x FY2007 earnings. The stock is certainly a outperformer with target price of Rs. 830.

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    Next IPO

    Dhanus Technologies

    Offer price: 280 -295
    Target Lsting Price: 420

    Dhanus Technologies, a rapidly growing communication services company, proposes to enter the capital markets on September 10, 2007 with a public issue of 38,35,000 equity shares of Rs 10 each through 100% book building process.

    The issue closes on September 12, 2007 and the price band has been fixed at Rs 280 to Rs 295 per equity share of Rs 10 each. The company is going to raise Rs 113.13 crore in the higher end of band and Rs 107.38 at lower band.

    After allowing for reservation of 2,00,000 equity shares for employees, the net issue to the public will be 36,35,000 equity shares. The issue would constitute 21.37% and the net issue would constitute 20.26% of the fully diluted post issue paid up capital of the company.

    SREI Capital Markets Limited is the BRLM for the issue and Cameo Corporate Services Ltd is the registrar to the issue.

    The company proposes to utilize the net proceeds of the issue for financing its business plans and to achieve the benefits of listing. The company intends to expand its infrastructural facilities and equipment base and would be constructing its new corporate office and network operating centre. The existing infrastructure, equipments, operations and facilities would however continue to be operational at the existing locations at Mena Kampala Arcade, Chennai. The equity shares are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE.

    Dhanus Technologies offers telecommunication services and unified messaging and enhanced logistics services. The company has a BPO operation of telemarketing services to the US, UK and Australia markets.

    For the year ended June 30, 2007, the company's total income was Rs 90.46 crore and net profit at Rs 24.59 crore as against total income of Rs 35.93 crore and net profit of Rs 13.09 crores for the year ended June 30, 2006

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    Gray Market Premium

    Kaveri Seeds 150 to 170 34 to 36

    Motilal Oswal 825 130 135 (Premium has increased again)

    Dhanus Tech. 280 to 295 125 to 130

    Indowind Energy 55 to 65 Discount (Issue might be withdrawn)

    Magnum Venture 27 to 30 2 to 3

    Koutons Retail 370 to 415 NA

    Consolidated Construction 460 to 510 NA

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    Recent Happenings

  • Sensex gains a hefty 6% to close the crucial falling gap at 14584-14964.

  • Reliance hits a new all-time high.

  • GPD growth rate for the 1st quarter at 9.3% on higher base.

  • Inflation at 15-month low of 3.94%.

  • World Markets move higher by 2.5% on average during the week.

  • S & P sees change at top after failing to detect sub-prime crisis.

  • US President steps in to rescue sub-prime victims.

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    Stocks that made it to new high levels

    1. Reliance : Support at 1685
    2. SAIL : Moved smartly
    3. BHEL : Gained 23% to a new high, right from our support level at 61.8% correction level mentioned earlier
    4. Century Text : Following sensex smartly
    5.Jaiprakash Hydro : Monthly Close chart shows a high-volume breakout from the 2-year consolidation

    Learn the basics: http://knowmarket.blogspot.com/