Sunday 7 October 2007

What's In My Portfolio

  • HDIL
  • Omaxe
  • Parsvnath Developers
  • Infosys
  • IDBI Bank
  • Yes Bank
  • ICICI Bank
  • KLG Systel
  • Atlanta Limited
  • Acrow India
  • UTV Software
  • Pantaloon Retail
  • Network 18 Fincap Ltd.
  • Banswara Syntex
  • L & T

Monthly Call


Andhra Bank

CMP: 92
Target 1: 111
Target 2: 116


Current Quote of Andhra Bank

Andhra Bank is a mid-sized PSU bank with strong presence in southern India and a network of 1,930 distribution channels giving it an asset size of Rs 49,000 crore. The bank reported net interest margin (NIM) of 3.47% for Q1FY08, a slight decline due to pressure on cost of funds. The bank continues to sustain strong credit growth at 26% for the March 07 quarter and 27% for the June 08 quarter, and is expected to grow at 25% in FY08 with margins expected to be maintained. Its Q1FY08 net profit grew 21% y-o-y to Rs 141 crore on account of lower provision expenses. The bank's cost-to-income ratio has improved from 55% in FY06 to 50% in FY07. With net NPAs at 0.17% and robust credit growth, we believe the stock is available at attractive valuation of 1.2x its FY09E ABV and 7.1x its FY09E EPS.

Six Month Call



JK Cement

CMP: 172
Target 1: 225
Target 2: 244


Current Quote of JK Cement


JK Cement reported a 59% rise in net profit to Rs 52.5 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 , against Rs 33 crore during the corresponding quarter last year. Turnover increased by 17% to Rs 326.4 crore (Rs 279.5 crore). The company, which currently has a capacity of 4.4 million tonnes, is expanding capacity at two locations – the green-field plant at Muddapur in Karnataka with a capacity of 3.5 million tonnes and Nihon Nirman in Rajasthan near Gotan (0.4 million tonnes). With the two plants, the company's capacity will increase to over 8 million tonnes by March 2009. The company has begun trial run of 20 MW pet coke-based captive thermal power plant. Waste heat recovery power plant is likely to be commissioned in Q3FY08. The company expects saving in power cost of Rs 175-200 per tonne after completion of all projects.

Target-A-Year


Bartronics India

CMP: 218
Target 1: 311
Target 2: 338


Current Quote of Bartronics India

Bartronics India (BIL), one of the first Automatic Identification and Data Capture (AIDC) solutions company, is leveraging its existing client base and expertise to move up the value chain and emerge as the largest end-to-end AIDC solutions provider in the country. It is investing more than Rs 270 crore into a new 80-million smart cards manufacturing facility, that would make it one of the biggest players in South Asia and enable revenue growth by 130% CAGR over FY07-09E. The stock is currently trading at 10.32x FY09E earnings and 6.23x FY09E EV/EBIDTA, which looks very attractive considering the sharp earnings growth.

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AIDC segment – First mover advantage

BIL is one of the first organized players to provide end-to-end AIDC solutions in India with more than 1,600 clients and five international distribution centers. Strong technical know-how has helped the company move up the value chain from bar code to RFID solutions and increase realization per client. The company has also diversified into the retail space considering the low penetration of organized retail, a sector that is clocking at 30% CAGR growth.

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Changing gears with smartcards

Smart cards are expected to take the company into fifth gear with the South Asia's largest manufacturing facility. Having an order book for more than 100 million smart cards over next two years is expected to generate 3.5x FY07 revenues from this segment alone.

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Strong earnings growth - Outperformer

The stock is trading at 10.32x earnings and 6.23x EV/EBIDTA for FY09. We believe the valuations are attractive considering the changing business model, robust 73.2% earnings CAGR over FY07-09E, strong bargaining position in the smart cards segment and its ability to scale up AIDC segment. The stock is outperformer with a target price of Rs 338, an upside of 44%.


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Next IPO



None at the moment!
Market is too volatile to predict for IPO currently. Though Reliance power looks okay.

Grey Market Premium

  • Reliance Power 32 to 34
  • Dhanus Tech. 280 to 295 60 to 70
  • Koutons Retail 370 to 415 75 to 80
  • Consolidated Construction 510 170 to 180
  • Supreme Infra 95 to 108 55 to 58
  • Saamya Biotech 10 5 to 6
  • MAYTAS Infra 320 to 370 130 to 135
  • Circuit Systems (India) Ltd. 35 5 to 6

Recent Happenings


  • Sensex does a 2000-point jaunt again, hits a new high at 17361.

  • Rupee scales a new 9-year high peak against Dollar.

  • HDFC cuts floating rates on Housing loans by 50 basis points.

  • RBI eases overseas investment and loan repayment norms.

  • Slowing credit growth makes SBI drop its rights issue.

  • Mukesh Ambani set to become richest Indian.

  • Inflation drops to 5-year low of 3.23%.

  • India wins Twenty20 cricket cup in a dramatic finish.

Prominent Healthcare stocks for Investment

1. Cipla : a-b-c corrective testing 61.8% correction level to previous rally
2. Ranbaxy : Red resistance lines crossed, now testing major resistance at the Green neckline
3. Aurobindo Pharma : Suspected Irregular "c" failure corrective holding 61.8% correction level
4. Biocon : Good once breaks strongly above the Green line
5. Dr.Reddy : a-b-c corrective testing 50% correction level to previous rally

Learn the basics: http://knowmarket.blogspot.com/